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UK Government may start printing money today

They call it quantitative easing and they say they won’t actually be running the prsses at De La Rue where the notes are printed, but this is effectively what is about to be done.

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates to 0.5% today and to start ‘increasing the money supply’, ‘quantitative easing’ or ‘printing money’ – it’s all the same thing. The amount concerned is £150 BILLION. We’re using capitals to emphasise this because the sheer scale of Government borrowing since Autumn 2008 has been so vast that we now hardly notice that these days the figures are always in BILLIONS. This itself is – subtly and profoudly – inflationary.

Japan is the most recent country to have tried printing money – around the turn of this century when its economy was facing a deep recession. The impact of this has not yet been fully assesssed but the most that can be said is that it had no more than a limited success. This underscores the sense that the Westminster Government is simply trying anything and that this is Brown’s fiscal version of Custer’s last stand

A serious problem is that the two actions expected today – lowering the interest rate even further and starting to print money – will see the value of people’s savings markedly affected. This tends to hit hardest those who have retired and have no opportunity to make up the shortfall in their slender personal cushions against hardship.

And this matters a lot in Argyll with its population skewed towards the upper age range.

RBS restructuring may lose 20,000 jobs as Brown prepares to print money and insure toxic debt

Stephen Hester, the new CEO of the Royal Bank of Scotland is dividing the bank into two main elements – today’s core business which is profitable and will carry on; and a peripheral cluster of ‘assets’ which will be sold as soon as buyers can be found. These ‘assets’ are the £300 billion debts – mostly toxic – acquired during the disastrous investment banking adventures that have brought the bank low.

Hester needs to show his shareholders that the heart of the RBS can succeed. Splitting the structure in this way means that he can point to one and try progressively to dispose of the other.

The identification of assets to be put up in a fire sale will inevitably mean job losses and industry experts are predicting that these may run to 20,000.

This news comes as Gordon Brown announces a plan to spend £500 billion in insuring the so-called toxic debt acquired by UK banks while at the same time pumping £15 billion, much of it new money, into the mortgage market by 2011 via Northern Rock. This is being done in an attempt to reverse the movement of the economy towards a settled recession.

Experts predixct that this move will itself create a twin track mortgage market, even within Northern Rock itself. Current mortage holders will continue to face repossession while new mortgagees will see much more favourable terms under the proposed injection of ‘new Government money’.

The national debt is now at a frightening level. Last week it was independently estimated by the Office of National Statistics at £2 trillion, when the value of the banks’ toxic debts are included.

Brown’s latest gamble – in insuring these debts and in going for what is called ‘quantitative easing’ – or printing money, as it is less ambiguously known to most of us – is also frightening. It may be too little too late.

On the one hand the UK is borrowing on an unimaginable scale and one which will bring real and widespread pain in the repaying.

On the other hand, Brown’s response pattern from the start of the collapse of the banking system has been to do as little as possible and to leave that until he had no alternative.

This means that none of the moves to date – however much they have cost us – have achieved the necessary stabilisation of the economy. From the reluctant, progressive upgrading of the bank guarantees to savers onwards, each move has been too small, too late and too indecisive. In effect, it has largely been wasted money.

Since early last Autumn when the financial industry began to unravel, there has been an argument that Brown’s best strategy was to make an early, large and bold move. But that is not his character.

The real nightmare is that the current massive debt will be our long term burden without achieving anything significant. It has been accumulated progressively, in fire-fighting dribs and drabs, each of which has vanished without impact.

However mad it seems, printing money might work in hands other than Brown’s but, with his track record throughout this crisis, hope that he might get this right would fly in the face of the evidence.

Brown has also set his face openly against a course recommended by many experts – dividing banking into two functions: the normal high-street retail banking and the high risk investment banking sector. The decision to carry on with the current twin-function banks will leave the taxpayer, now the owner of so much of the UK’s banking stock, liable for the risk-taking sector which could otherwise be hived off as purely private sector ventures.

Prudence to print pounds

If it wasn’t so terrifyingly serious it would be almost endearing – like the sort of solution to insolvency that any inventive small schoolboy like William the Bad would have taken, courtesy of his John Bull printing set.

Andy Mettler Wikipedia CommonsGordon Brown is seriously considering printing money – increasing the money supply. They call it ‘quantitative easing’.

This is how it works. There’s an important national company in trouble – or it could even be the banks needing yet more funds. The Government could buy the company, taking it into state ownership or buy the banks’ ‘toxic debts’ for the taxpayer. These are the debts that are probably irrecoverable.

The Government would have to borrow money to do any of these things – and the UK’s borrowing debt is already far beyond any historical precedent.

But there is another way. The Government could simply roll the presses of the Royal Mint for long enough to produce the required amount to buy the troubled company or fill the banks’ coffers again in exchange for unstable debts.

The state would own whichever, possibly worthless, commodity it had bought – with no increase in borrowing to pay for it. The company or the banks would have the cash – perfectly acceptable currency. They would use this cash for some purpose which would add to the money supply in general circulation. In the case of the banks, this would be money to lend – to small businesses and homeowners in loans and mortgages.

Neat, isn’t it? And it is this ‘solution’ that Dear Prudence is currently considering.

So what’s the problem? If the state were a bank – which it virtually is these days – the problem would be its ‘liquidity ratio’. When the largely unregulated banks recently collapsed, they did so because of virtually total easement on the requirement to lend against only a safe percentage of assets. So when borrowers defaulted and the pyramid of hedging imploded, they were themselves in irrecoverable debt. They had no liquidity.

If the state prints money it is in effect knowingly taking the same risk the banks took with such disastrous consequences. There will be no assets to set against the new money printed. It’s a confidence trick which, if the truth be told, all money is anyway. Within safe limits, however, confidence generally holds and we get by.

Printing money is the most desperate last throw for a state to make. It brings us closer to hyperinflation than we should sanely consider. In the 1920s, post First World War Germany increased the money supply, hit hyperinflation -  and there is living memory in the UK of German citizens literally barrowing Deutschmarks to pay for the smallest item of food. In the 1970s Argentina took the same route and got to the same place. And in the 1990s, Japan – as Brown may now do, refused to admit the lessons of history.

An increasingly possible nightmare is that Brown may print money, fatten the money supply and then call an early General Election, maybe in June. He would hope to win – or to lose narrowly – with the country gulled into a deceptive sense of relief in the greater availability of worthless money. And he would hope to win before the foundationless edifice comes tumbling down. But of course he would also hope that this wouldn’t happen. Every gambler does.

If the Prime Minister prints money, whichever party wins the election the country wll be stuffed.

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