Feels like seeing what’s there as the air clears after a sandstorm, doesn’t it? The reputation of Scottish banking for a Caledonian conservatism has taken something of a beating but both Scottish banks survive. Both are losing their Chief Executives and their Chairmen. Both are part nationalised, with state ownership of RBS at 60% and HBOS/Lloyds, with the Lloyds takeover going ahead, at 43%. This situation is not intended to be permanent. The Government will sell their shares in the the institutions when the time is right. This is not likely to be in the near future.
HBOS will be part of a giant bank that, before this crisis, would not have been permitted by the Competition Commission. There will inevitably be job losses in the rationalisation of now duplicated local branches. Realistically, while the matter is still being contested, it’s hard to see the HQ of the new bank being in Scotland. The tokens tossed to retain some additional jobs and to satisfy national pride include:
- the retention of the Bank of Scotland’s headquarters at The Mound in Edinburgh, which became the HQ for HBOS after the merger with the Halifax to form HBOS
- an annual Scottish AGM
- Scottish banknotes printed by the new bank, whose name is still to be decided
The Royal Bank of Scotland headquarters will remain in Edinburgh, out at Gogarburn. New Chief Executive, Stephen Hester is already in action and has begun to cut risk, concentrating, as we anticipated yesterday in our guide ‘What to do with your savings‘, on building the bank’s base of depositors, with a better customer oriented focus. The RBS has a suite of strong brands which Hester will build and he is known to want the bank to remain as an international force.
The battleground to come will be on the field of regulation. In the UK, the cutting away of regulatory procedures to free the banks to pursue profit-making in new ways began with Margaret Thatcher. It was enthusiastically developed by Gordon Brown as Chancellor through the almost-as-long Blair years. The Financial Services Authority, the formal regulator body, largely took a back seat and let the OK Corral approach to banking rip along almost unhindered. Few knew what was actually going on. Fewer, even inside the banks, understood it. Building Societies were given banking licences and joyously hit the ground running all over the place in a world they knew little about. Brutally, there was a general abdication of responsibility.
But, hey, we were doing well and in the good times who cared how we were doing it. Now we’re asking the questions. Many other countries are in the same position – but note Australia. The Australian banks are tightly regulated and that country has been relatively untouched by the banking crisis.
Scottish banking has a damaged reputation. Scotland will see job losses, directly in the banking world and more widely in the recession deepened by the banking crisis. Mortgages and loans will be available but the criteria governing them will be tightened. Our money is safe but will be drawn upon more deeply by inflation and will grow slowly in a depressed market looking at a long road to recovery. The Government’s borrowing, already high, many would say incautiously so, will rise significantly to finance the measures taken to stabiliise the financial system. These will be belt-tightening years.