Comment posted Pilots concerned on wind farm generated air turbulence by HansBlix.
To both you and the Doctor, Malcolm is about right. ROC wind subsidies to Scotland are running at £400m pa. Your figure of value per ROC is wrong (there are 2 components which vary but are typically £50 per MWhr in total) and your 0.1 ROC? I can’t understand where that figure comes from. Other than the 2 Robin Rigg farms which together receive over £40m in ROC, there are no other offshore farms in Scotland.
HansBlix also commented
- I’m finding it quite difficult to get the replies to correspond …
Doc DM: ROC’s are, of course, bought and sold. I was away wandering …
The important point with UK demand is that it is falling. A 3% drop is 2 big power stations knocked off peak demand. More than one Scottish gov minister has assumed that rUK would need our power but that can not be taken for granted.
Tim M: It isn’t only “some” windfarms that are experiencing trouble. More than half have grout problems and half (6 out of 15) have Siemens 3.6MW turbines which have corroded bearings. There are about 200 of these in the field and it can not be coincidence that the Gunfleet farms produced virtually nothing last year. The loss for just these two is £60m. SSE are suing Fluor for £300m over Gabbard’s mono-piles and that farm has still not produced anything. For perspective, the banks have all but taken over Vestas for Euro 300m to keep them afloat so the financial and reputational damage done to Siemens is considerable in a market which doesn’t have far to seek its troubles.
That destroys the business case for scaling up.
The one bright spot is the Beatrice Demonstrator Project. 2 x 5MW Siemens’ turbines on completely conventional 4 leg jackets – just looks like a drilling platform – in 40mtrs on the Smith Bank in the North Sea. 4 piles hammered into each leg of a jacket made in Methil with the Siemen’s turbine and pillar put together at Nigg in 2007. Nice sandy bottom … 42m cost with some saving from using the Beatrice AP platform for routeing the power ashore.
Other than SSE planning a 1GW farm near Smith Bank using either 3.5 or 7MW turbines instead of 5MW, the Demonstrator Project seems a success from beginning to end … a bit expensive maybe.
- I’ve not heard of it as a ‘nominal’ price before. It is the actual and is rather important.
What I thought you were saying was that the value of ROC in Scotland was negligible when compared with, say, the recently delayed fuel escalator. This is patently not true in the future when the subsidy will rise very rapidly. If this is not what you were saying, you might like to do some elucidating yourself.
You misrepresent the position of offshore farms. It isn’t a market failure. It is a technical failure. They aren’t reliable.
You have (at least) 2 problems with Scottish demand and supply: firstly the average temperature of the UK has risen and electricity consumption dropped 3% last year and secondly, to be relevant, you have to turn on the wind supply between 4 and 6pm; any other time, forget it. The rise in temperature is also, I presume, occurring in Europe and is bound to impact gas prices and even those coupled to oil prices must be dropping – or should.
If you’re experienced in International law and believe that then I can’t argue the matter but ROCs aren’t bought so I’m not sure there either.
We would make a dreadful mistake if we were to trust he power companies to even tell the correct time of day. SSE have publicly made their position clear and you can safely assume that applies to all others. There are 2 ways of looking at what they’re saying; the easy and I believe incorrect view is that they’re taking a swipe at Salmond and independence. This misunderstands what drives them. For example, the regulated side of SSE’s business is huge. They intend that the uncertainties over Scottish independence be used to extract a higher price for their regulated business from Ofgem. Investment in their liberalised business will continue, why shouldn’t it, but not for the long haul stuff like offshore.
- For one who has written so much on the subject, you seem to know remarkably little. The ROC value in 2010/11 was £51.34 and is the sum of 2 components: the government buy out price of £36.99 and the non-payment or recycle payment of £14.35.
Your context is wrong, completely so. Fuel consumption will never increase in the way that generation of electricity by wind farms is planned to. The Tiree Array alone would add £400m in ROC subsidy. You will get to well over £1.5bn in Scottish ROC wind subsidy quite quickly.
Fortunately, none of this will happen. Nobody, not even the clowns in the City of London, will invest in offshore wind given the problems that beset more than half of the current wind farms which are half the (turbine) capacity of future installation.
Your other context, post-independence, is another ‘aspiration’. There is every reason to suppose the UK consumer will oppose having to pay for constrained wind power in Scotland whilst paying for rUK wind power. You are asking them to pay twice for heavily subsidised electricity. Nor is there any reason for Scotland’s surplus wind power to be purchased at anything greater than at the margin.
- It’s the bit at the end of that piece which suggests ALL the UK consumers will happily pay for all this wind nonsense.
By the way, re the subsidy. When the first gov climate change levy was announced in 2000, I asked Scottish Hydro from whom we were buying more than £m of power how they felt about being a tax collector (especially as it appeared to be the fossil fuel levy by another name). We agreed that there was sod all we could do about it.
- Negative? The wind industry is doing that fine themselves without any help from anyone on here.
And the airport’s in the centre of he island with the main runway aligned NE SW almost directly downstream of the wind farm
Recent comments by HansBlix
- SHE Transmission hosts Skipness and Carradale tinies at Crossaig sub-station today
A year’s preparation to lay 2m of cable is unusual. Has a reason been offered? Perhaps a new route over Gunna or belt and braces trenching which in the rocky terrain would be quite something.
- Tiree takes its wholly unable power situation straight to government
The first half a mile from Coll, the cable is in very shallow water, might even be exposed on a spring low water. The remaining 1.5 m is deeper but only 10 metres or so. In actual fact there are at least three cables from Coll to Tiree, more than provide electricity to the UK, almost. All of them must be now dead. And it’s a rock bottom.
The Trust probably realise that the cost of maintaining the grid connection far exceeds the benefit and are looking for support.
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Are you sure that one nation accurately describes what happened? The opposition to the hydro was phenomenal; one politician threatened the objectors to one scheme with giving their names to the returning 51st Highland Light Infantry Division. What happened up to 2008 was an entire nation falling asleep at the wheel, in my opinion.
- So much for JOMO as businesses demand Scottish Government enables mobile phone mast upgrades
Hill walking in the Highlands one year I came across a small hydro generator . What ws surprising was that Bruce Peebles made the generator and Babcocx the peloton wheel – they must have been over 40 years old. The story behind this generating set is a carbon copy of this post.
Post war, the UK poured millions into hydro electricity. It was astonishing that a country crippled with debt and living on rations spent so much. The political force of Shinwell, the Minister of Power, and Johnson, the CEO of NSHEB, gave the highlands what they had never had, electricity. By the late fifties, interest rates were increasing and coal was within a whisker of hydro’s 0.8p/KWhr. The treasury were understandably unwilling to invest further money when a 10% increase in price was required to secure just a 1% return on capital. But the solution, the planned merger with SSEB in 1964 was thwarted. The political fallout of the Central belt subsidising the highlands or, what would have happened, a substantial increase in cost to highland consumers was too great.
My message is that it required the whole of the UK’s financial clout to get Scotland electrified. The economics were a nonsense but preventing the depopulation of the highlands was deemed a price worth paying.
We can’t afford the Beauly-Denny overhead power without UK support and if the HV line from Cruachan into Glasgow is anything to go by, I’d bet that the line from Inverness failed last week because the redundant conductors (if there were any) which were spare in the event of an emergency are now live load carriers.
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Broomielaw, upstream of Anderston, is where you run out of water for a shallow draft boat. That’s off an Admiralty chart and there may not be as much water since it was last surveyed. All data LAT or lowest astronomical tide. Air draught 4mtrs at best.
The distance to Gourock from Broomielaw is 20 nm, a long way.
There is already a seaplane operating area at Yorkhill.
I hope the SG is aware of how pressing is the need to survey Scottish waters. We were embarrassed to find that a lot were last surveyed in the 18th century. The consequences can be fatal cf MAIB
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