In the morning, we’ll start a separate running story for Argyll and Bute and Dumbarton – but tonight we’ll be keeping an eye on the overall picture.
Update 00.30: The big surprise so early is the widespread assumption that the SNP are going to do very well. Can this be trusted?
The news from Aberdeen is not dismissing the possibility of an SNP sweep there (declarations 3-4am). Andy Kerr, Labour’s Shadow Finance Secretary, waiting for the declaration at East Kilbride any moment, is looking pretty flat.
The morning papers seem all to be predicting a strong SNP performance.
Update 00.56: Rutherglen Declaration: Labour Hold (James Kelly) – but SNP 16% up. Labour up 2%. LibDem down – yet strong local candidate. Indicative result of what is to come? LibDem vote seems to be crashing and going to the SNP. Turnout 48%.
Michael Russell, Argyll and Bute SNP candidate is in the BBC Studio with Sally Magnusson and looking pretty relaxed.
Update 01.05: Tory campaign seems to be holding up so the UK coalition crash is LibDem focused. Kenny MacAskill, facing a possible lose with boundary changes, looks as if it’s going his way.
Update 00.12: East Kilbride looks like an Andy Kerr loss for Labour. SNP’s Linda Fabiani looking ecstatic. This is 12th ranked target for SNP. If they take it, it will be a significant indication of what the SNPs fortunes will be. IF this happens, it may mean a direct Labour-SNP swing, going beyond the dispersing LibDem vote.
Update 00.17: East Kilbride declaration – SNP GAIN. First BIG scalp – Andy Kerr out. Linda Fabiani now a constituency MSP. 51.52% turnout. Swing 6.6% Lab-SNP, SNP +10% Labour -3% LibDem -7% AND And Andy Kerr NOT on Labour’s List so he has no Plan B. We’ve queried the Labour List strategy before the vote, in relation to Jackie Baillie’s position in Dumbarton. It seems particularly unintelligent management.
Update 00.37 Hamilton declaration: Another Labour shock. SNP GAIN (Christina McKelvie). Tom McCabe out. Turnout 45.34%. Swing 11% Lab-SNP. SNP +18%. Labour -4%. LibDem -6%. Con -4%.
This is beginning to look like tree-felling. What happens if Labour lose a swathe of their main team? This is beginning to feel as if it’s going to be a tabula rasa night. Labour’s biggest veterans are going. Both Andy Kerr and Tom McCabe are capable and experienced politicians. Imagine – the SNP going up 18% – in LANARKSHIRE. This is not just the collapse of the LibDem vote. There is a direct swing from Labour to SNP. Tom McCabe has admitted that this loss was unforeseen, that the crashing LibDem vote should be coming to Labour but is going to the SNP.
Who is going to lead Labour now?
Amazingly, Tom McCabe has that the Labour party now has to realise that Scottish elections need to focus on Holyrood and not on Westminster. Sorry. Where have these guys been? We said yesterday that Scottish politics now refer to Scotland and that Westminster instinctively feels irrelevant. It’s been obvious.
What is interesting now is that if the SNP carry on with this momentum, it will see them with some new MSPs. Their problem in their first term has been the sheer burden of work spread across a relatively shallow talent pool. The arrival of new MSPs, who will take time to settle and mature, will nevertheless increase the available menu for growing ministers.
Many voters are talking about being turned off by negative campaigning. This should not be news. If anyone actually watched and listened to folk, it’s obvious how immediate a turn-off negativity is.
Update 02.12: John Swinney says that these are ‘ground-shaking- results and that tbis is going to be a historic night.
Update 00.17: Clydesdale declaration. SNP GAIN (Aileen Campbell – now youngest MSP – defeated Lab senior Karen Gillon) Turnout 52.9%. Swing Lab-SNP 8.9%. SNP +16%. Labour -2%. Con -5%. Votes from all parties are going to SNP.
So far we’re seeing the SNP take seats in Labour’s traditional heartlands.
Update 02.37: Very interesting comments coming from Studio pundits – talking about Labour MPs possibly being brought back to Holyrood, talking about the mistake of Labour sending two MSPs to Westminster. We’re hearing Holyrood become the game to be in. This is a very real shift in perspective happening as we’re listening.
Update 02.54: Eastwood declaration. Lab Hold (Ken Macintosh). Turnout 63%. Swing 8.7% Con-Lab. Lab +10%. SNP + 9%. COn -8%. LibDdem -8%
Update 02.55: Uddingston declaration: Lab hold. (Michael McMahon). Turnout 44%. Swing 9.6% Lab-SNP. Lab -4%. Con -2%. SNP +15%. LibDem -4%. Here the SNP vote gain was substantial, coming close to taking the seat.
Update 03.05: Airdrie and Shotts declaration: SNP GAIN (Alex Neil). Turnout 46.7% Swing 5% Lab-SNP. SNP +10%. Lab -1%. Con -3%. LibDem -%
Update 03.13: Glasgow Southside declaration: SNP hold, (Nicola Sturgeon) Turnout 43%. Swing 9.7% Lab-SNP. SNP+15%. Lab -5%. Con no change. LibDem -7%.
Nicola Sturgeon said if Winnie Ewing was watching it may have them some time but the SNP have brought Hamilton home to the SNP.
Update 03.16: Dundee East declaration: SNP GAIN. Turnout 47%. Swing 12.5%. SNP +15%. Lab -10%. Con -1%. LibDem -%. This is a whacking SNP gain and swing.
This is being seen as both a generational change for Labour and evidence that Scotland has lost its fear of independence – which does not mean that it will support independence.
Update 03.25: News that Frank McAveety has just lost Glasgow Shettleston – arguably one of Labour’s safest seats.
Update 03.28: Update Greenock Inverclyde, Lab Hold. Turnout 49& Swing 6.9%. Lab -1% SNP +14%. CON -4% LibDem -5% . Very safe Labour seat almost lost to SNP.
Update 03.30: Shetland declaration: LibDem hold (Tavish Scott) Turnout 57.2%. No swing. LibDem -19% – and that;s the leader of the Scottish party.
Update 03.30: East Lothian declaration:Lab hold (Iain Gray) Turnout Swing 3.1% Lab-SNP. Lab +5%. SNP +11%. Con -3%. LibDem -13%.
Huge fall for LibDems. Very narrow majority of 151 for Labour Leader. Will Iain Gray continue to lead the Labour group because there’ll be no one else left? In his acceptance speech he virtually conceded.
Update 03.35: Rumours that SNP have taken Falkirk East, Glasgow Kelvin and Charlie Gordon’s Glasgow Labour seat. Glasgow looks like becoming an SNP city.
Iain Gray says he’s elected as Leader of the Labour party.
Update 03.40: Falkirk West. SNP Hold.
Update 03.45 Glasgow Shettleston declaration: SNP GAIN. (John Mason ) Frank McAveety gone. Swing 12.6% Lab-SNP
Update 03.50: Falkirk East declaration: SNP GAIN (Angus Macdonald) Cathy Peattie gone.
Update 03.53: Cumbernauld declaration: SNP GAIN. (Jamie Hepburn) Swing 10.8% Lab-SNP.
Update 04.00: Agreement that this is disastrous for Labour – said to be in freefall; and that SNP has become the natural government of Scotland
Update 04.05: Glasgow Cathcart declaration: SNP GAIN ( James Dornan) Charlie Gordon has gone. Swing 6.5% Lab-SNP. Lab +1%. SNP +14%. Con -1%. LibDem -5%. This seat had the highest of the Glasgow turnouts in a generally low turnout – described as ‘a disconnect’.
Update 04.12: Galloway and Dumfries: declaration:Con Hold. (Alex Ferguson) Swing Con-SNP 2.4%
This one was a test for the Conservatives – met. Labour vote held in this constituency.
Update – 00.17: Aberdeen: SNP Hold (Alex Salmond) Turnout 57.72%. Swing .
Alex Salmond’s Election Agent – Stewart Pratt, is now the most succesful election agent in Scottish political history – with 8 successful campaigns for Salmond.
Salmond said Scotland has outgrown negative campaigning – no more scaremongering, No more insults to the intelligence of Scottish people. Noted that the results look like SNP has had trust renewed in a way no other government in Scotland has achieved.
Salmond then identified changes to come:
- control of the Crown Estate – saying that resources should work for people, not people for resources.
- Borrowing powers.
- Corporation tax control
In interview, said results showed Scotland would no longer listen to negative campaigning and scaremongering from any party.
Update 04,25: Edinburgh Pentlands declaration: SNP GAIN (Gordon Macdonald) David McLetchie gone. Swing 7.4% Con-SNP. SNP +11%. Con -3%. Lab -3%. LibDem -8%.
Annabel Goldie has now seen two potential challenges to her leadership of the Conservative group – Jackson Carlaw and David McLetchie – both defeated. McLetchie should get in on the List vote.
Update 00.27: Dumfriesshire declaration: LAB GAIN. Swing 6% Con-Lab
Update 04.30 Glasgow Kelvin declaration: SNP GAIN (Sandra White) Pauline McNeil gone. Turnout 39%. Swing 4% Lab-SNP. SNP +14%. Lab +6%. Con – 6%. LibDem -1%.
Update 04.40: Edinburgh Western declaration: SNP GAIN from LibDem (Colin Keir) Turnout 59%. Swing 12.6% from LibDem to SNP. SNP +13%. LibDem -12%. Lab +6% Con -6%.
Update 00.46: Linlithgow declaration: SNP GAIN (Fiona Hyslop) Turnout 52.6% Swing Lab-SNP. Turnout 52%. Swing 6.4% Lab-SNP.
Pundits (Hamish MacDonnel) now talking about the possibility of an outright majority- because the SNP paid attention to the List vote where Labour had not.
Update 04.46: Cunninghame South declaration: SNP GAIN from Labour.
Update 04.48: Glasgow Provan: Labour hold.
Update 04.49: Moray declaration (Richard Lochhead) Swing 6.2% Con-SNP
Update 04.57: Paisley declaration: SNP GAIN from Labour. (Wendy Alexander’s old set) Swing 9.2% Lab-SNP
Update 05.00: Almond Valley declaration: SNP Hold (Angela Constance) Swing 9% Lab-SNP. SNP +15%. Lab -3%. Con -2%. LibDem -4%
SNP gathering votes from all parties.
Update 05.03: Ediburgh Southern declaration: SNP GAIN (Jim Eadie) LibDem Mike Pringle gone. Swing 12.1% LibDem-SNP. Mike Pringle congratulated SNP for a good campaign and an outstanding result for the party.
Update 05.05: Banff and Buchan declaration: SNP Hold (Stewart Stevenson)
Update 05.10 Renfrewshire declaration: SNP GAIN (Derek Mackay) from Labour. Swing 8.4% Lab-SNP. SNP +12%. Lab -5%. Con -4%. LibDem -3%. Annabel Goldie a candidate – but didn’t expect to take the seat.
Update 05.16: Saltcoats declaration: SNP Hold (Kenny Gibson)
Update 05.18: Cunninghame North Swing 10.3% to SNP
Update 05.20: Turnout low – nowhere near mid 60%s. Glasgow very low.
Update 05.23. Renfrewshire South declaration: Lab Hold (Hugh Henry)
Update 05.25: Edinburgh Eastern declaration: SNP Hold (Kenny MacAskill) Swing 4.5% Lab-SNP. SNP +13%. Lab +4. Con -5%. LibDem -12%.
Update 05.35: Edinburgh Northern declaration: Lab Hold.( Malcolm Chisholm) Turnout 52.45%. Swing 2.7% Lab-SNP. SNP +12%. Lab +7%. Con -1%. LibDem -18%. This is the worst LibDem collapse so far.
Update 05.35: Pundit consensus is that Labour had no second vote strategy where the SNP had a good one and were, right up to the last minute were pushing both the constituency and the second vote. The prediction is that this should see the SNP also do well in the List votes and Labour less so. This is what supports the notion that an overall majority – the first devolved majority – might just be possible.
Update 05.44: Perth declaration: SNP Hold (Roseanna Cunningham).
Conservatives had hoped to take this one with LIz Smith but have come nowhere near doing so.
Update 05.46: Edinburgh Central declaration: SNP GAIN (Marco Biaggio) Sarah Boyack out. Swing 10.29% LibDem-SNP. SNP+10%. Lab _4%. LibDem -10%. Con -4%.
That’s another experienced Labour politician gone. Malcolm Chisholm might be interesting – always a non-partisan politician, he might make Labour interesting.
Update 05.53: Aberdeen West declaration: SNP GAIN (Denis Robertson) Swing 13.4% LibDem-SNP. SNP +14%. LibDem -13%. Co -3%. Lab +2%. Denis Robertson will be Holyrood’s first blind MSP. The LIbDems’ Mike Rumbles has gone.
Update 05.57: Glasgow Anniesland declaration: SNP GAIN (Bill Kidd) Swing 10.1% Lab-SNP. SNP +15%. This is another demonstration that the SNP has moved from being a party of the North East to being a party for the country (Alex Salmond has now called it the National Party of Scotland). This is clear in its performance in the cities.
Update 05.58: Carrick and Cumnock declaration: SNP Gain (Adam Ingram) Swing 11.8%. SNP +15%. Lab – 8%. Con -4%.
There is speculation that the LibDems have done so badly that they may be left with only two constituencies – Orkney and Shetland.