Comment posted More results from vote analysis in Argyll and Bute council election by JimB.
All very clever but newsie’s assumption seems to be that all the votes were cast FOR the candidate.
What about the effect of tactical voting?
Why all the surprise at Tories and Tartan Tories aligning? Is there that much of a difference?
Recent comments by JimB
- First Minister’s choice not to condemn mob behaviour proves Farage point
Why should UKIP not come to Scotland? Is it because the vote for indy is a vote for rule by
the EU? Become independent and become citzens of the United states of Europe (for that is where the EU is clearly heading) is to me totally illogical. Maybe Mr. Farage highlights a weakness in the SNP case.I for one look forward to the promised referendum, bring it on, the sooner the better and lets get away from what is a corrupt organisation that cannot even sign off on its accounts.
As for the furore about immigration, it is all very well when you live in Argyll which has few immigrants and those we do have seem to have integrated quite well. There are other areas of the UK where locals feel like strangers in their own land. Is this not a social problem and should the likes of UKIP not highlight it?
- Argyll and Bute Council: the horsetrading begins
Gosh Fletcher you had better watch your halo dosen’t slip and choke you.You say,”What people want is what they voted for: the SNP group to form the administration and do a good job of governing Argyll” but the SNP clearly has not done this in any way shape or form. Everbody else can see this. What is wrong with you?
- New council administration appears not to be what it seemed
Is For Argyll behind the times on this one?
I saw on the BBCnews/scotland website that the A&B SNP group have been suspended by the party for entering into a coalition without the party’s consent.
You could not make this up.
Just shows how centralised the supposedly democratic and transparent the SNP really are. - Struan and then some: the revelation of planned elderly care provision in Argyll and Bute
There was an article on tbe BBC/scotlandnews website last week about similar power play problems happening in another SNP council. I forget exactly which council it was but I think it was to the north of the country.So, A&B council is not a lone example.
- Struan and then some: the revelation of planned elderly care provision in Argyll and Bute
It might also be worth remembering JT that another option, raising Council Tax to increase income for the Council, was taken away by the SNP government.Or have I got it wrong and is it the fault of Westminster too?
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Interesting stats.
The fact that the final result as on the application forms was Ind 15 SNP 13 Tory 4 Lib Dems 4 begs the question why the Argyll First folk did not put that on their form.
Also how the Administration can have a Tory in its ranks with 3 Tory councillors in opposition!
Could only happen in ABC.
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It would seem obvious that not all Independents are as independently minded as the Argyll First folk and others described thus who chose to ally theselves with the SNP to help form the administration. Similarly it is clear that in Donald Kelly the Tories have a man who is not afraid to have a mind of his own -even if, maybe because, it causes your Islay correspondent so much despair. Mr Kelly is not alone in acting and speaking out independently as we can see from former Tory benefactor Peter de Vink in Midlothian who has been elected and joined the SNP administration there and former Tory Minister Peter Fraser who has been ruffling feathers with some outspoken and, some may judge, “heretical ” opinions about the constitutional future of Scotland.
Some of the old certainties are definitely being challenged. We live in interesting times.
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All very clever but newsie’s assumption seems to be that all the votes were cast FOR the candidate.
What about the effect of tactical voting?
Why all the surprise at Tories and Tartan Tories aligning? Is there that much of a difference?
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With party-based candidates, votes are generated both by individual performance and party loyalty.
With votes for an Independent who has joined a non-political group between elections, the vote is largely a personal one, because the group cannot campaign as such and has no electoral identity. There will be a degree of impact on this vote of the respect or otherwise of the performance of the group to which the individual has belonged but in 2012 this has not been substantial. An Independent who joins a group between elections has a level of ‘deniability’ which party-based candidates do not.
There’s no evidence in the results of organised tactical voting.
The overall pattern indicated by the final results in 2012 is that the SNP inherited much of the lost LibDem vote, replacing Alison Hay with Sandy Taylor in Mid Argyll (a direct result of the school closures issue) and taking a third seat in Oban South and the Isles with the move from the LibDem to the Alliance and to the SNP of incumbent Councillor Mary Jean Devon who has a strong personal vote.
The SNP and the Conservatives were also the beneficiaries of the lost LibDem vote in Kintyre and the islands with the hard working performance of SNP Anne Horn taking votes from the semi-detached LibDem Robin Currie; and with Conservative Alastair Redman taking Islay votes off Currie for local reasons – Currie had let down his constituents in the school closures issue.
In Oban North and Lorn there was a clear shift away from councillors associated with the Alliance, although this was also affected by personal voting factors, for and against, in each individual case. Here the principal beneficiary was the new kid on the block, the respected Iain Angus Macdonald standing for the first time and as a genuine Independent.
The Alliance lost massively in Lomond North as much as anything because they were two candidates down. They lost William Petrie to retirement and they had disgracefully expelled Councillor George Freeman for his vote on the school closures issue. Freeman not only topped the poll -taking more votes out of the pool but Councillor Danny Kelly, centrally associated with the deed done to Freeman, suffered the loss of his seat as much for that as for the school closures issue.
At the end of the day, if you subtract from the SNP’s overall gain across the Argyll and Bute constituency, the impact of Alison Hay’s self-generated loss and the gift of Mary Jean Devon’s personal vote, that party’s gain was very modest.
The Alliance’s catastrophic loss of vote in Lomond North was largely also self-generated and local, with the Conservatives the major beneficiary.
The national collapse of the Lib-Dem vote actually and reasonably seems not to have been much of a factor here. This party was always going to lose its second seat in Helensburgh and Lomond South because it had been gained at a by election, with one seat already on hand and the entire LibDem vote available then to vote in a second candidate (Andrew Nisbet). But the party vote in that ward was never enough to take two seats although Councillor Ellen Morton increased her vote this time for the first seat. In Helensburgh Central, the vote of the late Councillor Al Reay and the 55%+ vote lost by Conservative Councillor Gary Mulvaney seem both to have simply been generally dispersed but with very respectable support for a new Independent candidate, David Alastair Allan.
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Will JimB tell us who he thinks are the Tartan Tories?
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Hi Lachie,Very valid points But to miiamxse any ethereal benifits , Tiree has to approach from a position of strength What to do ? Dance to their tune or have them dance to ours ? Cutting through the waffle; you don’t take a knife to a gunfight.Slightly off at a tangent interesting that while SPR seem to be trying to say ground disturbance on Tiree will affect the crofters & they seem to be opening the doors to discussion . this is but a mear distraction to the documented facts regarding micro climate change something they seem unable or not willing to open up and discuss. They say they have to do weather studies etc but as we all know we already have 50 or so years of documented weather available on Tiree they hopefully have data on the affects of huge turbine areas on landmass if they don’t why not ?Karl
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