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Given the electoral arithmetic in North Lorn I …

Comment posted Louise Glen-Lee wins Oban North and Lorn by election by Dr Douglas McKenzie.

Given the electoral arithmetic in North Lorn I would say her seat is pretty safe (or at least one SNP councillor being returned from the ward is a safe bet – the multi-member ward system does mean that she could come in behind another SNP candidate). More the question is whether another SNP candidate will topple one (or more) of the three sitting independents.

The real interest in yesterday’s election is the strong showing for the Tory candidate. Given the unpopularity of the UK government this seems a remarkable achievement. Of course the turn out wasn’t great and the sitting independents weren’t standing (obviously) so it is difficult to predict the effect of loyalty to individuals but I would hazard a guess that the most likely outcomes in May are 2 SNP, 1 Tory and one Independent. My side bet would be 1 SNP, 1 Tory and two independents.

Equally interesting is the continuing poor showing for liberal democrat candidates (schools?).

Of course, in Kintyre1’s alternative universe there will be a completely different result in May. I hope his fantasies bring him some pleasure through these dark winter months. His disillusionment won’t seem so bad when the sun is shining in May.

Dr Douglas McKenzie also commented

  • Fireworks are a lot more attractive on the TV than the Oban Common Good fund saga or indeed most of our councillors (Roddy obviously excepted).

    It is one of the positive outcomes of the schools closures debacle that a lot more people (of all ages) are taking an interest in what the Council is up to. I think people are belatedly waking up to the realisation that they have to be a lot more proactive in working towards a better Argyll and I hope that next year’s elections will be the start of a new opportunity for greater community engagement in the very important task of improving our milieu. Attracting really good people into the Council is difficult and there is a good reason why the ranks of councillors tend to be filled by the retired, political careerists and those with part time (or no) work.

  • Has Kintyre1 moved to my neck of the woods? Or does he have a twin separated at birth?

Recent comments by Dr Douglas McKenzie

  • Rustle with Russell
    More utter rubbish from Lynda Henderson. Have you actually spoken to Bob Allen? Whoever told you the story sold you a pup and in your arrogance you cannot admit to be wrong so you make up this story that he was persuaded not to resign.

    Your position is completely untenable.

  • Russell back in the bathtub, now trying to sink Keith Brown’s boat
    I’m afraid you condemn yourself by your own words. I don’t think that anyone reading what you have written here and the language you have used would conclude anything other than that you have a deep dislike for Mr Russell and that dislike is leading you to basically lose all sense of either proportion or impartiality. It doesn’t matter how well (or otherwise) you know Mr Russell you are clearly exercised by your interpretation of his actions and it is leading you well beyond the pale in what I would consider fair comment.

    This vendetta against Mr Russell and the SNP is destroying FA’s credibility and I have to confess that I’m seriously considering whether or not to continue reading FA (which will cheer Malcolm up if nothing else). I for one am becoming increasingly disenchanted by the constant negativity and sheer nastiness that has crept into this blog. I say that with a lot more sorrow than anger because I think that FA could have been great and indeed still could but there has to be a degree of balance, civility and indeed humour. All we are getting here is bile and it is causing me heartburn.

  • Russell back in the bathtub, now trying to sink Keith Brown’s boat
    To be honest, this post clearly shows that you are speaking from your personal dislike of Mr Russell rather than an unbiased analysis of the man. Phrases such as “publicity hungry coward” are well beyond what is reasonable comment.
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    You don’t seem to understand the separation of a MSP’s duty to his or her constituency and their responsibilities as a Government Minister.

    Yet again, this is another instance where a member of the Government can do no right: speak up and be condemned as “desperate” or stay silent and be accused of not serving your constituents’ interests.

    It is just as well that Mr Russell has broad shoulders!

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