With party-based candidates, votes are generated both by …

Comment posted More results from vote analysis in Argyll and Bute council election by newsroom.

With party-based candidates, votes are generated both by individual performance and party loyalty.
With votes for an Independent who has joined a non-political group between elections, the vote is largely a personal one, because the group cannot campaign as such and has no electoral identity. There will be a degree of impact on this vote of the respect or otherwise of the performance of the group to which the individual has belonged but in 2012 this has not been substantial. An Independent who joins a group between elections has a level of ‘deniability’ which party-based candidates do not.
There’s no evidence in the results of organised tactical voting.
The overall pattern indicated by the final results in 2012 is that the SNP inherited much of the lost LibDem vote, replacing Alison Hay with Sandy Taylor in Mid Argyll (a direct result of the school closures issue) and taking a third seat in Oban South and the Isles with the move from the LibDem to the Alliance and to the SNP of incumbent Councillor Mary Jean Devon who has a strong personal vote.
The SNP and the Conservatives were also the beneficiaries of the lost LibDem vote in Kintyre and the islands with the hard working performance of SNP Anne Horn taking votes from the semi-detached LibDem Robin Currie; and with Conservative Alastair Redman taking Islay votes off Currie for local reasons – Currie had let down his constituents in the school closures issue.
In Oban North and Lorn there was a clear shift away from councillors associated with the Alliance, although this was also affected by personal voting factors, for and against, in each individual case. Here the principal beneficiary was the new kid on the block, the respected Iain Angus Macdonald standing for the first time and as a genuine Independent.
The Alliance lost massively in Lomond North as much as anything because they were two candidates down. They lost William Petrie to retirement and they had disgracefully expelled Councillor George Freeman for his vote on the school closures issue. Freeman not only topped the poll -taking more votes out of the pool but Councillor Danny Kelly, centrally associated with the deed done to Freeman, suffered the loss of his seat as much for that as for the school closures issue.
At the end of the day, if you subtract from the SNP’s overall gain across the Argyll and Bute constituency, the impact of Alison Hay’s self-generated loss and the gift of Mary Jean Devon’s personal vote, that party’s gain was very modest.
The Alliance’s catastrophic loss of vote in Lomond North was largely also self-generated and local, with the Conservatives the major beneficiary.
The national collapse of the Lib-Dem vote actually and reasonably seems not to have been much of a factor here. This party was always going to lose its second seat in Helensburgh and Lomond South because it had been gained at a by election, with one seat already on hand and the entire LibDem vote available then to vote in a second candidate (Andrew Nisbet). But the party vote in that ward was never enough to take two seats although Councillor Ellen Morton increased her vote this time for the first seat. In Helensburgh Central, the vote of the late Councillor Al Reay and the 55%+ vote lost by Conservative Councillor Gary Mulvaney seem both to have simply been generally dispersed but with very respectable support for a new Independent candidate, David Alastair Allan.

Recent comments by newsroom

• Institute of Fiscal Studies economist looks at fiscal context of independent Scotland
  The link to Mr Emmerson’s presentation has been given in the article above from the outset.
  And – in genuine puzzlement – what precisely do you see as ‘spin’?
• Colonsay votes 60%-40% in favour of proposed Marine Harvest salmon farm
  Freedom Foods is less and different than it seems.
  This article is required reading for any understanding of this tricky situation:
  http://forargyll.com/2013/01/rspca-compromised-by-freedom-food-certification-for-farmed-salmon/
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  We would be be very happy to answer this question if we could.
  But, as things stand, there is no substantive information and economic detail on exactly what economic strategy and its associated policies would be pursued for an independent Scotland.
  The First Minister’s ‘Scotland’s Economy’ paper, recently launched, was profoundly disappointing in this respect and, in its lack of economic substance, replaced by ad-man puffery, was damaging to the campaign’s credibility.
  We can assure you and anyone, that when such information becomes available – and we are sure it will because it must – we will not be prejudging it but will respond to it with open mind and goodwill and the necessary intelligent scrutiny.
  We have WANTED and still want to see a coherent, joined up, strong, imaginative, challenging and achievable strategy and policies put forward for a specific future for Scotland – honestly described in unchallengeably accurate costs and benefits and carving out an identity for Scotland that is realistic and unique.
  The extent to which all we are being offered is essentially the status quo with a new badge and a few costly goody bags to entice ‘Yes’ votes could not undermine the ‘independence’ prospectus more thoroughly.
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  It is necessary is to know the realistic costs, perceive the realistic benefits and decide if the price is worth paying.
  We do not believe that the price need be too high or the benefits inconsequential – but as this campaign is being run, the price IS too high and the benefits insubstantial because, in any competent sense, the necessary thinking has not gone on.
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