Comments on: Mulvaney reveals the game for Argyll & Bute in the coming General Election

By: makintyre1

makintyre1 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 22:00:18 +0000

i think kinytyre1 is an snp who just puts these silly points up to help the snp because they are all easy to answer

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By: Dave McEwan Hill

Dave McEwan Hill — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:29:08 +0000

Exactly.
That was 10 years ago.
We all know the SNP was in that position 10 years ago in Argyll and Bute and in fact the Euro result proved to be an exact guide to the relative parliamentary position.
As will be the current case with the SNP in first position by a mile.
Next silly point?

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By: kintyre1

kintyre1 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:36:41 +0000

here’s your evidence……………. 1999 euro election result argyll & bute snp 1st , tory 2nd , lib3rd
following general election 2001 lib 1st , lab 2nd , tory 3rd , SNP FOURTH

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By: Dave McEwan Hill

Dave McEwan Hill — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 22:54:08 +0000

And when was that “proven”. Evidence, please.

I have all the facts and figures but I’ll let kintyre1 provide them first.

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By: kintyre1

kintyre1 — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:23:00 +0000

who wins the euro election in argyll & bute has been proven to be no guide to the following general election result .
snp supporters here have chosen to overlook the george lyon factor .
mr lyon was candidate in the scottish election and the euro one . a very unpopular figure in argyll , he is loathed by many on bute , party came second to the get rid of lyon factor
i find it regretable that nationalists are happy to back slap with one another all day but refuse to seriously engage with anyone of a different viewpoint .

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By: John Patrick

John Patrick — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:18:57 +0000

For kintyre1, it is now 2009 “There is no confusion like the confusion of a simple mind.”

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

Now is the time to put childish things aside and the good caring citizens that love Argyll will vote for a better, stronger Argyll with the SNP representing them in Westminster.

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By: Dave McEwan Hill

Dave McEwan Hill — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:28:55 +0000

Indeed, Willie. Not a lot of point of answering kintyre1′s posts as they demonstrably uninformed nonsense.
I am the first to concede when the results are not good for the SNP so I never indulge in fantasy figures or projections or, like kintyre1, childish wishful thinking.
So popular are Alan Reid and the LibDems in A&B that they came in nearly 10 points BEHIND the SNP in Argyll and Bute at the Euro Election. THAT IS A FACT. NOT A FIGMENT OF MY IMAGINATION. For every two people, for example, who voted LibDem three voted SNP.

I have little doubt that many will have noticed the collection of contradictions in kintyre1′s post above. I think there is little point in further response to his sour and delusional offerings.

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By: Willie McEwan

Willie McEwan — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 20:36:34 +0000

“no doubt the liberals will surprise everyone by their high vote count in part earned by their commendable opposition to the snp at holyrood”

What a laugh.
No need to make any further comment except that it has been very firmly established that the vast majority of remaining Labour supporters have SNP firmly as their second choice.

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By: kintyre1

kintyre1 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:30:34 +0000

i expect snp mouthpieces to spout nationalist propaganda but to read in the lead article that the snp came third in the 2005 in argyll & bute is just incredible .
for the record in 2005 the snp came a poor FOURTH place – over 9000 votes behind the liberal , 3500 votes behind the tory and 3000 votes behind labour . snp vote down 2% liberal up 3.7%
fast forward to 2010 , the overwhelming unionist majority in the constituency have to decide how best to prevent the election of a nationalist . seen in this context , not since 1987 is there likely to be such a high level of tactical voting .
most labour people despise the snp and are likely to vote liberal in considerable numbers to try to prevent a conservative victory
a considerable number of tory voters will hold their noses and vote for alan reid to stop the nats
no doubt the liberals will surprise everyone by their high vote count in part earned by their commendable opposition to the snp at holyrood

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By: Willie McEwan

Willie McEwan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:51:55 +0000

I hope you’re right but I have a feeling that the SNP are firmly ahead at this moment in most of Argyll and Bute. The Helensburgh factor may make a big difference however as this is added onto us for Westminster elections. Any polling results from Helensburgh?

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By: David McEwan Hill

David McEwan Hill — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:47:36 +0000

There is and always has been a significant anti Tory majority in Argyll and Bute and the Tory only wins when they maximise their vote in a situation when the SNP and the LibDems split the anti Tory vote evenly.
My reading however is that the Tory vote has shrunk so far now that this is no longer in their reach in this constituency and the recent Euro result would underline this. The Tories were a poor third behind a poor second for the LibDems with the SNP almost 10points ahead of the LibDem vote.
In one respect however Mulvaney is absolutely correct. A big part of the ineffectual Alan Reid’s support has been from disaffected Tories and I’m sure a significant section of them are now moving back to the Tories. Information I’ve seen gathered from door to door canvassing shows a movement from LibDems to SNP also so I would be prepared to bet heavily if there was a General Election soon Alan Reid would have no chance of retaining this seat. I think most informed people in Argyll and Bute strongly believe this to be the case at the moment.
A lot of the Labour vote in Argyll and Bute has voted LibDem to keep the Tory out in the past. I am sure that the SNP will take most of this vote this time.
On present figures Mulvaney is battling Reid for a poor second place and the Labour candidate will be lucky to get 2000 votes.
My prediction? Mike MacKenzie 12,500; Gary Mulvaney 8000; Alan Reid 7,500; David Graham 2000

A week is along time in politics however.

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